Only speculators buy the stock then dump weeks later...;) Up and down share price volatility, especially in microcosm, tells us almost nothing about a given company. Only amateurs react to every little up and down, etc.
Interesting that Intel is hit with yet another major CPU architecture vulnerability that affects at least everything Intel shipped in the last five years--object lesson on the perils of milking, I guess.
I bought AMD at $8 and sold it when it got to the $30's. Then I bought Tesla in the $200's and sold it a few weeks ago in the $500's. Now it's trading at $650.
Their forecasts are foolish and neglect things like seasonality. Q1 2019 to Q1 2020 makes more sense than expecting that sales will be generally steady with some blips upward for product launches. When revenues come from selling products, then the buying cycle for buyers needs to be understood.
If there are a lot of computer sales for "back to school" and for the holiday season, you have to understand that the OEM computer makers need to buy parts well before that time, on the order of six to nine months. Laptop chips may be sold to OEMs in February but not available to customers until May or June(three months for the OEM to prepare new product models plus QA), then the products go out through the distribution channel to the sellers. It's not as quick as parts that are sold directly to consumers(desktop processors).
Seasonality makes sense when talking about established players that have low variations in market share. Expectations from AMD are higher given the hype (justified) around their products. They are supposed to be improving with every quarter. A lot of folks believe that AMD can produce as much as the customers are willing to order, which is not as straightforward as it seems.
I'm kinda confused by what you're saying. They definitely take seasonality into account as evidenced by the fact that their forecasts were lower than what amd reported for q4. It's just that what they had expected amd to forecast for q1 is lower than what amd actually forecasted
I don't think that is terrible for a segment that traditionally doesn't seem have a lot of room for growth. I feel that many datacenter and enterprise buyers are hesitant to change quickly, and are not buying new systems every year. Or if they are buying systems every year it's to replace what they already have.
This is so true. We are putting together a large PO now, but it will probably end up being for Intel systems. Why? Because our previous systems are all Intel, and moving to Cascade Lake from Skylake is super easy from a qual process. And moreover while we're "enterprise" we aren't *so* enterprise that our vendor will give us a bunch of machines to evaluate.
So while I'm confident we'd get far more bang for our buck with an Epyc 2, our IT director is confident that he can get the same machines we have today with an updated CPU, and get it installed with a working OS image with very little effort.
That means I have another year to find some Epyc systems to get in-house to benchmark with our load. Next January's PO might be for AMD.
We’ve updated our terms. By continuing to use the site and/or by logging into your account, you agree to the Site’s updated Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Facebook
Twitter
RSS
123 Comments
View All Comments
phr3dly - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
The stock is up 80% since October. Lots of great news is already baked into the price.WaltC - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Only speculators buy the stock then dump weeks later...;) Up and down share price volatility, especially in microcosm, tells us almost nothing about a given company. Only amateurs react to every little up and down, etc.Interesting that Intel is hit with yet another major CPU architecture vulnerability that affects at least everything Intel shipped in the last five years--object lesson on the perils of milking, I guess.
https://cacheoutattack.com/CacheOut.pdf
Shlong - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
I bought AMD at $8 and sold it when it got to the $30's. Then I bought Tesla in the $200's and sold it a few weeks ago in the $500's. Now it's trading at $650.Dr. Swag - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
I believe the reason is that their forecast for Q1 2020 is lower than people thought they would put it atTargon - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Their forecasts are foolish and neglect things like seasonality. Q1 2019 to Q1 2020 makes more sense than expecting that sales will be generally steady with some blips upward for product launches. When revenues come from selling products, then the buying cycle for buyers needs to be understood.If there are a lot of computer sales for "back to school" and for the holiday season, you have to understand that the OEM computer makers need to buy parts well before that time, on the order of six to nine months. Laptop chips may be sold to OEMs in February but not available to customers until May or June(three months for the OEM to prepare new product models plus QA), then the products go out through the distribution channel to the sellers. It's not as quick as parts that are sold directly to consumers(desktop processors).
psandeep - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Seasonality makes sense when talking about established players that have low variations in market share. Expectations from AMD are higher given the hype (justified) around their products. They are supposed to be improving with every quarter. A lot of folks believe that AMD can produce as much as the customers are willing to order, which is not as straightforward as it seems.Dr. Swag - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
I'm kinda confused by what you're saying. They definitely take seasonality into account as evidenced by the fact that their forecasts were lower than what amd reported for q4. It's just that what they had expected amd to forecast for q1 is lower than what amd actually forecastedtipoo - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
10% growth in Epyc was smaller than expected given all the balls in their courtDiHydro - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
I don't think that is terrible for a segment that traditionally doesn't seem have a lot of room for growth. I feel that many datacenter and enterprise buyers are hesitant to change quickly, and are not buying new systems every year. Or if they are buying systems every year it's to replace what they already have.phr3dly - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
This is so true. We are putting together a large PO now, but it will probably end up being for Intel systems. Why? Because our previous systems are all Intel, and moving to Cascade Lake from Skylake is super easy from a qual process. And moreover while we're "enterprise" we aren't *so* enterprise that our vendor will give us a bunch of machines to evaluate.So while I'm confident we'd get far more bang for our buck with an Epyc 2, our IT director is confident that he can get the same machines we have today with an updated CPU, and get it installed with a working OS image with very little effort.
That means I have another year to find some Epyc systems to get in-house to benchmark with our load. Next January's PO might be for AMD.