AMD Conference Call CFO Prepared Remarks

Following Dr. Su, AMD's CFO, Devinder Kumar, also had prepared remarks:

2019 was an outstanding year for AMD. Our competitive product portfolio and market share gains drove the highest annual and highest quarterly revenue in AMD history. We achieved our highest annual gross margin percentage and annual free cash flow since 2011. We improved non-GAAP earnings per share by 39% year-on-year. In short, we are very pleased with our financial performance.

Fourth quarter revenue was $2.13 billion up 50% from a year ago, and up 18% from the prior quarter driven by strong sales of Ryzen and EPYC processors, and Radeon on GPUs, partially offset by softer semi-custom sales. Gross Margin was 45%, up 360 basis points from a year ago, driven primarily by sales of our leadership 7nm  products. Operating Expenses were $545 million, with increased investments in go-to-market activities and R&D, compared to $474 million a year ago. Operating Income was $405 million, up $296 million from a year ago, driven by revenue growth and higher gross margin. Operating margin was 19% as compared to 8% a year ago. That income was $383 million, up $296 million from a year ago. Diluted earnings per share were 32 cents per share, compared to eight cents per share a year ago.

Business Segment Results

The Computing and Graphics segment revenue was $1.66 billion, up 69% year over year, driven by Ryzen processor and Radeon gaming GPU sales growth. The Computing and Graphics segment operating income was $360 million or 22% of revenue, compared to $115 million a year ago, driven by higher revenue.

Enterprise Embedded and Semi-Custom (EESC) segment revenue was $465 million, up 7% from $433 million the prior year. The continued growth of EPYC processes was partially offset by softer semi-custom revenue. EPYC processor revenue grew by a strong double digit percentage sequentially driven by robust shipments of our second generation EPYC processors. EESC segment operating income was $45 million, or 10% of revenue, driven by EPYC process sales, compared to an operating loss of $6 million a year ago.

During the quarter, we reduced gross debt by $524 million, which resulted in a GAAP loss of $128 million. These debt reductions result in an annualized interest expense saving of approximately $16 million. Free cash flow was positive $400 million in the fourth quarter, and cash flow from operation was $442 million. Inventory was $1 billion down 6% from the prior quarter. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $469 million compared to $152 million a year ago, driven by higher quarterly earnings.

Full Year Results

2019 revenue was $6.73 billion, up 4% YoY driven by strong growth in Computing and Graphics segment and sales of second generation EPYC processors, partially offset by a decline in semi-custom sales. Excluding semi-custom, revenue was up more than 20% year over year. Gross Margin of 43% was up 420 basis points from the prior year, driven by our current generation of Ryzen and EPYC products. Operating expenses were 31% of revenue, as we increase go-to-market activities and investments in R&D. 2019 operating income was up 33% from a year ago to $840 million, or 12% of revenue. Net income was $756 million, up 47% from the prior year.

Turning to the balance sheet, I'm extremely pleased with our progress on the strengthening balance sheet. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities total $1.5 billion at year end, while gross debt was $563 million. This represents our highest net cash position since the third quarter of 2006. Full year free cash flow was $276 million. We reduced principal debt by almost $1 billion in 2019, and ended the year with less than $600 million of gross debt. On a trailing 12 month basis, adjusted EBITDA was $1.1 billion, resulting in gross leverage of 0.5x, down from 1.9x at the end of 2018.

Outlook for 1Q 2020

We expect revenue to be approximately $1.8 billion, plus or minus $50 million, an increase of approximately 42% year over year, and a decrease of approximately 15% sequentially. The year over year increase expected to be driven by strong growth in Ryzen, EPYC, and Radeon product sales. The sequential decrease is driven primarily by negligible semi-custom revenue, which continues to soften in advance of the ramp of next generation products, in addition to seasonality.

In addition, for Q1 2020, we expect non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 46%. [We expect] Non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $580 million, non-GAAP interest, expense, taxes, and other to be approximately $18 million, and the first quarter diluted share count is expected to be approximately 1.22 billion shares.

Outlook for FY2020

For the full year 2020, we expect revenue growth of approximately 28 to 30%, driven by strength across all businesses. We expect non-GAAP gross margin, to be approximately 45%, non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately 28% of revenue, and a non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 3% of pre-tax income.

In closing, we had an excellent fourth quarter, and an excellent 2019. Our full year financial results highlight the strength of our business model. I look forward to what we have in store for 2020 as we expect to further expand and ramp our leadership portfolio of high performance products to drive revenue growth, gross margin expansion, market share gains and financial momentum.

AMD Conference Call CEO Prepared Remarks Slide Deck
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  • phr3dly - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link

    The stock is up 80% since October. Lots of great news is already baked into the price.
  • WaltC - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link

    Only speculators buy the stock then dump weeks later...;) Up and down share price volatility, especially in microcosm, tells us almost nothing about a given company. Only amateurs react to every little up and down, etc.

    Interesting that Intel is hit with yet another major CPU architecture vulnerability that affects at least everything Intel shipped in the last five years--object lesson on the perils of milking, I guess.

    https://cacheoutattack.com/CacheOut.pdf
  • Shlong - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link

    I bought AMD at $8 and sold it when it got to the $30's. Then I bought Tesla in the $200's and sold it a few weeks ago in the $500's. Now it's trading at $650.
  • Dr. Swag - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link

    I believe the reason is that their forecast for Q1 2020 is lower than people thought they would put it at
  • Targon - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link

    Their forecasts are foolish and neglect things like seasonality. Q1 2019 to Q1 2020 makes more sense than expecting that sales will be generally steady with some blips upward for product launches. When revenues come from selling products, then the buying cycle for buyers needs to be understood.

    If there are a lot of computer sales for "back to school" and for the holiday season, you have to understand that the OEM computer makers need to buy parts well before that time, on the order of six to nine months. Laptop chips may be sold to OEMs in February but not available to customers until May or June(three months for the OEM to prepare new product models plus QA), then the products go out through the distribution channel to the sellers. It's not as quick as parts that are sold directly to consumers(desktop processors).
  • psandeep - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link

    Seasonality makes sense when talking about established players that have low variations in market share. Expectations from AMD are higher given the hype (justified) around their products. They are supposed to be improving with every quarter. A lot of folks believe that AMD can produce as much as the customers are willing to order, which is not as straightforward as it seems.
  • Dr. Swag - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link

    I'm kinda confused by what you're saying. They definitely take seasonality into account as evidenced by the fact that their forecasts were lower than what amd reported for q4. It's just that what they had expected amd to forecast for q1 is lower than what amd actually forecasted
  • tipoo - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link

    10% growth in Epyc was smaller than expected given all the balls in their court
  • DiHydro - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link

    I don't think that is terrible for a segment that traditionally doesn't seem have a lot of room for growth. I feel that many datacenter and enterprise buyers are hesitant to change quickly, and are not buying new systems every year. Or if they are buying systems every year it's to replace what they already have.
  • phr3dly - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link

    This is so true. We are putting together a large PO now, but it will probably end up being for Intel systems. Why? Because our previous systems are all Intel, and moving to Cascade Lake from Skylake is super easy from a qual process. And moreover while we're "enterprise" we aren't *so* enterprise that our vendor will give us a bunch of machines to evaluate.

    So while I'm confident we'd get far more bang for our buck with an Epyc 2, our IT director is confident that he can get the same machines we have today with an updated CPU, and get it installed with a working OS image with very little effort.

    That means I have another year to find some Epyc systems to get in-house to benchmark with our load. Next January's PO might be for AMD.

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