Discrete Desktop GPU Market Trends Q3 2016: GPU Shipments Hit Two-Year High
by Anton Shilov on November 28, 2016 9:00 AM ESTWrap Up
The industry shipped 34.4 million discrete graphics cards in the first three-quarters of 2016, an increase of 5.35% from 32.65 in the same period last year. If everything goes as planned for AMD and NVIDIA, year-over-year unit sales of graphics adapters will increase in 2016 for the first time in nearly a decade. Obviously, shipments of desktop GPUs this year will barely touch sales of GPUs even in 2014, but it could be important that shipments of graphics adapters may have bottomed out.
With 9.34 million desktop AIBs sold so far in 2016, AMD has already beaten its last year desktop GPU shipments and is on a recovery path. Nonetheless, the company still cannot win back its market share from its arch-rival: its share has dropped to 29.1% in Q3 from 29.9% in the previous quarter.
NVIDIA’s desktop GPU sales so far (from Q1 to Q3 2016) are slightly behind shipments of its AIBs in the first three-quarters of 2015 because the company decided to aggressively clear out inventory in Q2. Nonetheless, with 25 million desktop GPUs sold this year (until September 30, 2016, to be correct), the company can still supply the same amount of desktop GPUs as last year.
As reported, iGPUs are slowly eating the lunch of entry-level and mainstream graphics cards that cost below $99. In Q3 of 2016, the industry shipped around five million of such AIBs, whereas shipments of gaming-grade desktop GPUs were around seven million. Meanwhile, the popularity of enthusiast-class graphics hardware decreased in Q3 2016 compared to Q3 2015 mostly due to classification, rather than due to changes in the general consumer behavior (what used to be enthusiast class performance can now be had at mainstream prices, in the classification scale based on price). Those who play games are going to continue to buy gaming-grade hardware and well-developed nations are going to increase purchases of more advanced GPUs because of factors like 4K/5K resolutions, VR and others.
“I think, one, the number of gamers in the world is growing,” said Jen-Hsun Huang. “Everybody that is effectively born in the last 10-15 years [is] likely to be a gamer.”
Important Notices
- Jon Peddie Research does not officially disclose actual unit sales of AMD, NVIDIA and Intel in its press releases. All unit sales published here are derived from market shares of appropriate vendors.
- Since in many cases JPR does not disclose quarterly TAM numbers, those numbers are derived from historical numbers published by the company.
- Some historical numbers were re-stated by IHVs and JPR reflected such updates in subsequent reports and releases. As such, some numbers in our graphs may differ from publicly available press releases.
- JPR did not release any data concerning sales of desktop discrete graphics cards in Q1 – Q3 2010, but only disclosed shipments for Q4 and total shipments for the year, which is why the numbers in the charts for Q1, Q2 and Q3 are the same.
- Given the fact that unit sales and TAM figures are approximate, we recommend to buy full reports from Jon Peddie Research if you need the data for decision-making.
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tipoo - Monday, November 28, 2016 - link
This is an important counterpoint to the "PC shipments are falling" doom and gloom. PC shipments are falling because a 5 year old 2500K can still run modern games if the GPU allows. But PC /gaming components/ are on the upswing, so it's still a great time to be a PC gamer. Complete system sales are tertiary.BrokenCrayons - Monday, November 28, 2016 - link
This sums up the state of the declining computer sales nicely. While CPU performance and platform features (minor nod to USB) haven't pushed the performance envelope enough to matter AND software isn't demanding more, the GPU industry is driven by pent-up demand for a die shrink and widespread increases in screen resolution.Threska - Sunday, December 4, 2016 - link
Well the killer uses for GPUs are going to be VR and machine learning.0ldman79 - Monday, November 28, 2016 - link
That's not necessarily a problem.We need tech to settle a bit. That might actually increase overall ownership and total market penetration. Having to upgrade the machine every two years just to keep up has kept a lot of people out of the market for anything but the cheapo computer.
Strunf - Thursday, December 8, 2016 - link
People didn't upgrade the machines every two years to keep up, CPU wise we have reached a good enough CPU for the average user like 10 years ago, people who upgrade every 2 years are enthusiasts and they will keep to do so, the ones who stopped upgrading are the ones that have a already good enough PC... or the vast majority of PC users and companies.There isn't really a problem, PC shipment will keep going down cause a PC has nowadays a very long useful life and cause of other technologies, tablets already replaced the PC on many households... my guess in a few years Gamers will represent the vast majority of the PC users and until then desktop PC sales will keep going down, and even then there are new technologies that allow to play PC Games over the network without even having a PC.
stephenbrooks - Tuesday, November 29, 2016 - link
Another thing to bear in mind with these graphs is the comparative improvement of integrated graphics over the time frame. It must be eating the low-end of discrete GPUs by this point.Samus - Tuesday, November 29, 2016 - link
The problem isn't just a 5 year old 2500K is adequate for most common games, but many other tasks, especially simple content consumption, are clearly delegated to other devices most prominently smart phones and tablets.Unless you desire a PC for gaming, or you are a business owner that is sticking to the legacy operations schema (and not modernizing your IT infrastructure) then desktop PC's don't offer any clear compelling advantage over laptops and mobile devices.
Meteor2 - Wednesday, November 30, 2016 - link
Well, AIOs look nice, and are nice to use. Whether they're actually 'desktops', as they use laptop components, is another question.