Tying it all together

Currently Intel’s processors are manufactured on a 0.18-micron process, and as we just discussed that refers to the circuit size. Next year, Intel will be shipping their first 0.13-micron parts in the first half of 2001 (we’re expecting that in the second quarter). As Intel has done for the past two generations of processors, this 0.13-micron process will debut first on their mobile processors.

The yield on any given process is lower upon the process’ introduction and increases as the manufacturing of the process matures. This is why Intel debuts all new manufacturing processes in a lower demand area (mobile processors) before moving it over to the desktop and workstation processors as well.

Before we get to what this means in terms of Intel’s future processors, let’s take a look at the actual reduction in size that the 0.13-micron process brings us. This development comes from Intel’s largest entity with 4000 workers: the Technology and Manufacturing Group (TMG).

It is from this group that we not only get the improved manufacturing processes, but we also get quite a bit of materials research from this part of Intel as well. Such as the decision to make the move to Copper interconnects with the 0.13-micron process, a decision that AMD actually beat Intel to with their 0.18-micron process.

TMG’s forecasts indicate that Intel’s manufacturing goal is for a 30% shrink in transistor size every 2 years. This results in the manufacturing forecast represented below: