Maintaining Moore's Law

Every two years we need the ability to make chips smaller and cram more transistors into the same area. It makes microprocessors faster, more complex and cheaper depending on what you do to them. It also really helps with the whole ridiculous pace of innovation our industry likes to maintain.

If our ability to do that came to a halt, we'd be faced with our own little economic-depression in the microprocessor industry.

The threat that it will come to a halt is real, just as the confidence that we'll be able to innovate through for the next 10 - 15 years at least. It's all a matter of size. In order to cut transistor area in half every two years, you need to be able to physically design circuits that small - which requires some very expensive and precise equipment.

Hitting 45nm was difficult, but possible. AMD/Globalfoundries resorted to immersion lithography to make the transition. Basically it involves using liquid to improve the resolution of current 193nm lithography tools. By the time 32nm rolls around, Intel may have to do the same. Scaling beyond 32nm may reach the optical limitations of the current tools. Designing smaller, more densely packed chips may not be possible.

The replacement technology is something called extreme ultraviolet lithography. It's uses 13.5nm wavelength light (instead of 193nm) to be able to realize much finer patterns than current lithography tools.

Multi-gate transistors are also expected to be needed at or after 22nm to maintain the sort of progress we've been used to. Multi-gate transistors are also non-planar so you can physically fit more in the same area, helping density issues.

Remember die-stacking? That's coming too.

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  • TA152H - Thursday, July 30, 2009 - link

    Obviously, you're a moron.

    Think before you post, OK?

    IBM CAN afford just about anything, but they don't afford things that lose money. Perforce, IBM's fabs make money, or they'd jettison them. How is it they make money with their fabs, and AMD can't? AMD sells a lot more processors. The answer is simple, except for you. AMD is making a crappy processor they can't sell for much money.

    I'll say it again, because you're obviously slow. IBM has fabs that make money, or they'd get out of the business. They sell less processors. Therefore, AMD having to own the x86 business is a idiotic remark. They just need processors that they can sell for a higher margin. Got it now, simpleton?
  • HVAC - Wednesday, July 29, 2009 - link

    Dear Brybir,

    Here, let me help you by writing the reply you should have written instead of the diatribe you did submit:

    "@TA152H .... MORON!"
  • brybir - Wednesday, July 29, 2009 - link

    You are correct.

    I got caught in a moment of weakness in my desire to keep the trolls away. I am also bored at work. A very bad combination.

    What I have done here represents all that is bad and wrong with the world. I will turn in my nerd card at the door and go sit in a shallow pool of cold water in a dark corner of the room until I am better.
  • DFranch - Wednesday, July 29, 2009 - link

    strikeback03: I did not realize that Malta, NY had a reputation for rain. It's not exactly Seattle.
  • strikeback03 - Wednesday, July 29, 2009 - link

    I lived in the area for 4 years, it rains enough, and snows more
  • karhill - Wednesday, July 29, 2009 - link

    Malta's annual rainfall is about 43.5 inches, compared to 37 inches for Seattle.
  • Tuor - Thursday, July 30, 2009 - link

    Heh. You shouldn't be looking at rain totals, but days per year that it's mostly cloudy/cloudy. I'm pretty sure Seattle will beat out Malta pretty easily in that regard... but maybe not.
  • JarredWalton - Thursday, July 30, 2009 - link

    http://countrystudies.us/united-states/weather/was...">Olympia is much worse than http://countrystudies.us/united-states/weather/was...">Seattle, according to that site.
  • JarredWalton - Wednesday, July 29, 2009 - link

    Ha! You leave my lovely state of WA out of this. At least here in Olympia, we get very little (if any) rain during the time of June-August. My grass is dead, and current temps are in the mid-90s (supposed to hit 101F today!), which totally sucks. Anything above 80F is too hot for me. :-(

    GIVE ME BACK MY RAIN, DAGNABBIT!

    FYI, Olympia gets more rain than Seattle: estimate is around 180 days of rain per year. LOL
  • just4U - Thursday, July 30, 2009 - link

    Yeah it's really hot here in Calgary, Canada right now. It's like 61F .. and were expecting it to get up to 82F tomorrow.. Ugh!!

    (WTH who thru that shoe at me! oO)

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