Ten Year Anniversary of Core 2 Duo and Conroe: Moore’s Law is Dead, Long Live Moore’s Law
by Ian Cutress on July 27, 2016 10:30 AM EST- Posted in
- CPUs
- Intel
- Core 2 Duo
- Conroe
- ITRS
- Nostalgia
- Time To Upgrade
Looking To The Future: NAND Flash Scales Up to 64 TB SSDs in 2030
Over the past few years, the NAND Flash industry has gone through two major shifts in technology: the movement from 1 to 2 to 3 bits per cell, which directly increases bit density and capacity, and also moving from planar flash to variants of 3D stacking. Stacking can refer to individual NAND dies, as well as stacking those dies into a single package: both of these features are being extensively investigated to increase density also. There are two main drivers for this: reduction in cost, and capacity. However, despite this, the predictions in the ITRS report for NAND flash are primarily looking at improvements to numbers of layers rather than lithography changes or moving to more bits per cell.
As we can see, TLC (according to the report) is here to stay. QLC, or whatever you want to call it, is not mentioned. The two changes are the number of memory layers, moving from 32 today to 128 around 2022 and then 256/512 by 2030, and the number of word-lines in one 3D NAND string. This gives a product density projection of 256 Gbit packages today to 1 Tbit packages in 2022 and 4 Tbit packages in 2030.
If we apply this to consumer drives available today, we can extrapolate potential SSD sizes for the future. The current Samsung 850 EVO 4 TB uses Samsung’s 48-layer third generation V-NAND to provide 256 Gbit TLC parts. Alongside the 4 TB of memory, the controller requires 4 GB of DRAM, which is another concern to remember. So despite the report stating 256 Gbit in 32-layer, we have 256 Gbit in 48-layer, which is a difference primarily in die-size predictions for the report. Still, if we go off of the product density we should see 12 TB SSDs by 2020, 16 TB in 2022, 48 TB in 2028 and 64 TB drives in 2030. It’s worth noting that the ITRS report doesn’t mention power consumption in this table, nor controller developments which may be a substantial source of performance and/or capacity implementations.
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bcronce - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
My AMD 2500+XP lasted me until a Nahalem i7 2.66ghz. It was a slight.... upgradeartk2219 - Friday, July 29, 2016 - link
Very minor, im sure you barely noticed :).jjpcat@hotmail.com - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
I have a Q6600 in my household and it's still running well.In term on performance, E6400 is about the same as the CPUs (e.g. z3735f/z3745f) used in nearly all cloudbook these days.
Michael Bay - Thursday, July 28, 2016 - link
Yep, I was surprised at that when looking through the benchmarks. Turns out Atom is not so slow after all.stardude82 - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
I've just finished decommissioning all my Core 2 Duo parts, several of which have been upgraded with 2nd hand Sandy Bridge components.Yeah, CPU performance has been relatively stagnant. CPUs have come to where commercial jets are now in their technological development. Jets now fly slower than they did the 1960s, but have much better fuel economy per seat.
Not noted in the E6400 v. i5-6600 comparison is that they both have the same TDP which is pretty impressive. Also, you've got to take inflation into account which would bring the CPU price up to $256 or there about, enough for a i5-6600K.
ScottAD - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
One could argue that while Core put Intel on top of the heap again, Sandy Bridge was a more important shift in design and as a result, many users went from Conroe to Sandy Bridge and have stayed there.That pretty much defines my PC currently. Haven't needed to upgrade. Crazy a decade like nothing.
ianmills - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
When a website has trouble keeping up with current content and instead recycles decades old content.... things that make you go hmm...Ian Cutress - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
I'm the CPU editor, we've been up to date for every major CPU launch for the last couple of years, sourcing units that Intel haven't sourced other websites and have done comprehensive and extensive reviews of every leading x86 development. We have had every Haswell-K (2), Haswell-E(3) Broadwell (2), Broadwell E3 Xeon (3), Broadwell-E (4) and Skylake-K (2) CPU tested and reviewed on each official day of launch. We have covered Kaveri and Carrizo in deep repeated detail over the last few years as well.This is an important chip and today marks in an important milestone.
Hmm...?
smilingcrow - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
Ananand do CPUs very well, can't think of anyone better. Kudos and thanks to you 'guys'."This primarily leaves ARM (who was recently acquired by Softbank)"
They are under offer so not guaranteed to go through and ARM isn't a person. :)
ianmills - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
I agree you do a good job with CPU's. Its some of the other topics that this site has been slowed down in when compared to previous years