Ten Year Anniversary of Core 2 Duo and Conroe: Moore’s Law is Dead, Long Live Moore’s Law
by Ian Cutress on July 27, 2016 10:30 AM EST- Posted in
- CPUs
- Intel
- Core 2 Duo
- Conroe
- ITRS
- Nostalgia
- Time To Upgrade
Looking To The Future: Mobile, 32-cores and 8K Displays
The volume of the mobile industry today is certainly a hot topic, especially with Intel scrapping their mobile platform as recently as April 2016. This primarily leaves ARM (who was recently acquired by Softbank) in the driving seat for providing the next decade of mobile processor designs. Because ARM sells licences, both processor licences and architecture licences, a number of ARM’s partners have taken the base instructions and decided to forgo ARM’s core designs for their own. This is why we currently see Samsung with their M1 core, Qualcomm with their Kryo core, and Apple with their Twister cores as well, while Huawei, Mediatek and others are combining parts of ARM’s core designs with various GPU designs either from ARM or Imagination. Getting the right combination of parts, as well as the industrial design, are key elements to the user experience as well as the mobile industry as a whole.
Then of course, Mediatek announced the Helio X20 last year, which is finally now in devices. This is a 10-core part, using a paradigm such that the most relevant cores needed for performance and power consumption are in play at the right time. The creation of a 10-core part made a number of industry analysts wonder which direction this market was going in, as on the one end we have the Helio X20, while Apple’s latest iPhone family were using dual-core designs of Apple’s custom implementation. So if 10-cores are too much, this roadmap might come a little surprising.
As we stand in 2016, this roadmap states we are currently in a 6-core mobile CPU arrangement with 12 GPU cores, with the CPU running at 2.8 GHz. Displays are around the Full-HD mark, with overall board power at 4.42W. Well we certainly have hex-core parts today (2xA57 + 4xA53), 12-core GPUs also exist in Apple’s products, and Samsung’s M1 core is rated at 2.8 GHz. Some phones, such as Sony’s Xperia Z5 Premium, already have 4K screens (8.3MP), which is more geared towards 2020 in this roadmap.
Cycle now from 2016 to 2025, almost 10 years in the future. ITRS’ roadmap states the following:
- 36-cores
- 247 GPU cores
- 4.0 GHz
- 8K Screens (33.2 MP)
- 61.9 GB/s memory bandwidth
- 28 Gbit/s WiFi
- 6.86W Board Power
- 103 cm2 board area
Now clearly, for this piece I conferred with our mobile team and I got a lot of confused faces. Even scaling down from 16nm in 2016 to 4nm in 2025, they felt that so many all-purpose cores in a chip (as well as all the GPU cores) was probably excessive, not only in terms of utility but also for 2D floor plan. In order to implement this, more z-height would be needed as well as appropriate 3D technologies in place. Andrei felt the frequency targets were more respectable, and the memory bandwidth would depend on how the silicon designers decided to implement on-package DRAM vs multi-channel implementations. The board power seemed a little excessive, if only because the laws of physics can’t change that drastically, and an increase in +50% board area just means a bigger device.
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e1jones - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
My E8400 is still my daily driver, 4x 2gb and an SSD swapped in later as the boot drive. Still runs great, except it tends to get bogged down by the TrustedInstaller and the Firefox memory leaks.rarson - Friday, August 5, 2016 - link
I've got an E8600 in an Abit IP35 Pro motherboard. I was having a hard time finding DDR2-1066 last I looked, so I settled for 800. With an SSD and 7870, it's surprising how well it still games. I don't think I'll upgrade the GPU again just due to the fact that I'm limited to PCI-e 2.FourEyedGeek - Monday, August 8, 2016 - link
You could get a higher end GPU and still benefit from increased performance, then get a new CPU motherboard combo when you want too.BrokenCrayons - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
I just upgraded out of a Q6600 and 4GB DDR2 about 2 months ago and I admit that I was still kicking around the idea of leaving it alone as I was pulling the motherboard out of the case. I replaced it with a cheap AMD 860k and 16GB DDR3 which really hasn't done a lot to improve the system's performance. In retrospect, I think I could realistically have squeezed another couple of years out of it, but the motherboard's NIC was iffy and I really wanted reliable ethernet.As for laptops, I've got a couple C2Ds kicking around that are perfectly adequate (T2310 & P8400) for daily use. I really can't see any point in replacing them just yet. Core was a good design through all its iterations.
Beany2013 - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - link
I like your style - rather than drop $100 on a midlevel intel NIC, you replace an entire platform.I strongly approve of these economics :-)
Michael Bay - Thursday, July 28, 2016 - link
USB3 is kind of nice.BrokenCrayons - Thursday, July 28, 2016 - link
Well the NIC wasn't the only reason, but it was the last in a series of others that I was already coping with that tipped the scales. The upgrade was under $200 for the board, processor and memory so it really boiled down to one weekend dinner out to a mid-range restaurant. It was worth it for more reliable Steam streaming and fewer VNC disconnects as that wired ethernet port is the only means by which I regularly interact with my desktop since it has no monitor and is crammed into a corner in my utility room.artk2219 - Friday, July 29, 2016 - link
Why didn't you go for an FX if you dont mind me asking? You liked the FM2+ platform a bit better?BrokenCrayons - Friday, July 29, 2016 - link
Actually, I didn't give much of anything in the system a very close look before buying. I admittedly did about twenty minutes of research to make sure the 860k and the bottom feeder motherboard I'd picked would play nicely together before making a purchase. So the CPU & motherboard pair were the result of laziness and apathy rather than a preference for FM2+.artk2219 - Monday, August 1, 2016 - link
Ah ok gotcha, I just wanted to share that if you had a microcenter near you they sell FX 8320E's bundled with motherboards for 125 to 170 depending on which board you want to use. That can be quite the steal and a great base for a new cheap system once you bump the clocks on the 8320E.