PM Forum - Q3/2003: Part 1

3. Lately, AMD has been emphasizing that the industry is ready for 64-bit computing, in reference to their upcoming Athlon64. Do you think the Athlon64 has enough 32-bit benefits to be immediately successful?

PM #1: Yes, we believe AMD might have a great chance to succeed with the Athlon 64 CPU. But it all depends on the quantity of CPU they can supply for the market. If the quantity of CPUs is low and limited, AMD may lose their chance to get back market share from Intel.

PM #2: Customers are going to question the practicality and benefits of purchasing a 64-bit processor with a higher price tag over the 32-bit only counterpart, Athlon XP. The main driving reasons behind successful adoption of the new architecture among consumers will be price, performance, and compatible applications. For example, if Microsoft and other software vendors cannot provide compelling applications (i.e. applications that take advantage of the new architecture to provide significant performance enhancement, and applications that have backward compatibility with 32-bit counterparts), there will be no reason for consumers to upgrade.

PM #3: The key should be the readiness of 64-bit applications. AMD will launch the new CPU with future features, but the better way to promote the CPU is to exploit the performance that user can be benefit from the new stuff.

PM #4: Need OS and AP support. Need more time for ramp up.

PM #5: Prior to the end of this year, the available quantity of AMD64 is not so much, so we don’t expect the selling quantity to be that big, but 64-bit computing is a good selling point to compete with Intel, if the price of AMD64 is aggressive enough, it will be successful in a short time.

PM #6: Now the CPU yield rate will be the major problem.

PM #7: The success of Athlon 64 will depend on compatibility with DDR memory. Its performance is not the major concern.

PM #8: “The next big thing” for the PC industry in the rest of 2003 is AMD 64-bit processor. We believe it will benefit the world-wide PC economy. It will take off and it must take off.

PM #9: Not till we see a 64-bit OS released. Before that, we will probably never see the “true” performance of it.

PM #10: Yes, people are not just looking at current performance benefit brought by Athlon64, but also it’s headroom for future upgrade, I mean its potential for higher frequency and performance is much better than K7, or even P4.

PM #11: But the CPU supply might be a concern.

The feedback is a bit split both ways, but a little over half of the product managers, 54%, give AMD the benefit of the doubt. Only 15% don’t give a solid “yes” or “no” answer, but instead cite concern for the availability of 64-bit applications and compatibility of Athlon64 with DDR memory. Regardless of their opinions, the majority still points to two obstacles that Athlon64 will need to overcome: software and supply. On the software side, there will definitely need to be more support for Athlon64 to really ramp up AMD sales, either near product launch or soon after. And as PM #1 writes, “If the quantity of CPUs is low and limited, AMD may lose their chance to get back market share from Intel.” So far, AMD has done a good job of marketing that 64-bit processing is the next step for the industry, which is translating into demand. However if AMD can’t actually supply the product on schedule, to a degree everything else is going to be irrelevant. Many of these product managers see this as a rare occasion for AMD to gain back mainstream market share from Intel, because it isn’t often that such a generation jump takes place nor has the market been in this specific situation before.

Regardless of these opinions, something is going to happen soon. Athlon64 is going to do something for AMD. At this point, it can’t really fail, only fall short of expectations. But many are putting it the way PM #8 did, “‘The next big thing’ for the PC industry in the rest of 2003 is AMD 64-bit processor. We believe it will benefit the world-wide PC economy. It will take off and it must take off.”