Solid state storage might not have been the most exciting tech sector to follow in 2020, but it certainly had its fair share of new technologies arriving, consumer-friendly price drops, and a major corporate acquisition deal.

COVID-19 Impact on Supply and Demand

Going into 2020, most analysts were predicting that a shortage of NAND flash memory would develop and drive up SSD prices, especially in the second half of the year. The COVID-19 pandemic upended those predictions. Early on in the pandemic, it was anybody's guess whether supply or demand would be more strongly affected. By the middle of the year, it was clear that the fabs in Asia where most of the world's NAND flash is manufactured were able to weather the pandemic with no significant drop in manufacturing capacity.

The lifestyle shifts to work-from-home and online learning drove some demand for new PCs and increased server capacity for online services, but the broader economic impact of the pandemic largely outweighed those effects and hurt overall demand. The net effect is that, contrary to pre-pandemic predictions, SSD demand is low enough that the NAND flash market has an oversupply and prices are in decline. This is expected to continue through at least the first quarter of 2021 with a 10-15% drop in NAND flash memory prices. The impact on retail SSD prices will be somewhat dulled by the fact that supplies are tight for SSD controllers and some other components, which may push SSD manufacturers to focus a bit more on high-capacity high-end drives, especially datacenter drives.

Gaming Consoles Switch to NVMe

Perhaps the biggest shift in consumer storage this year was the arrival of gaming consoles built from the ground up to take advantage of solid state storage. Consoles generally establish the baseline hardware capabilities that games and game engines are designed to target. For over 15 years, this has meant that AAA games are designed to run off hard drives. Even as SSDs have become prevalent in gaming PCs, it has until recently been unthinkable for a game to list a SSD as part of its minimum system requirements. The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X have now raised the baseline storage performance from that of a mechanical hard drive to a NVMe SSD, and game developers are actively encouraged to take advantage that extra performance. Furthermore, the consoles include various other hardware features intended to complement the new console SSDs; we gave you the rundown on those features and their implications back in June.

So far, the console transition to NVMe storage has had little impact on the PC market or PC gaming—but the consoles have only been shipping for a short while, and game developers are still learning how to adapt to the new freedoms granted by fast storage. This console storage transition will be having more influence on PCs over the next few years. Microsoft is already working to adapt their new Xbox storage APIs into DirectStorage for Windows, and it won't be long before most AAA games require SSDs. For gaming PCs, including a NVMe SSD will be just as important as including a discrete GPU.

Read More: Storage Matters: Why Xbox and Playstation SSDs Usher In A New Era of Gaming

PCIe 4.0 Gaining Momentum

The transition to PCIe 4.0 started in the middle of 2019 with the debut of AMD's Ryzen 3000 processors. On the storage side of that transition, SSD controller vendor Phison led the way with their E16 controller. But in 2019 and most of 2020, PCIe 4.0 storage remained a niche market segment, only available on new high-end desktops and with SSDs that offered only marginal performance improvement over the best PCIe 3 drives but carried much higher price tags.

All of Phison's competitors decided to take their time with the PCIe 4.0 transition; 2020 was supposed to be the year that a new wave of gen4 SSD controllers arrived, fabbed on more advanced processes like TSMC's 12nm FinFET so that the full performance of a PCIe 4 x4 interface could be reached within a reasonable power budget. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to delays here as well, and many new SSDs previewed at CES at the beginning of the year arrived late or are still missing. Samsung and Western Digital delivered their new in-house gen4 NVMe SSD controllers during the second half of the year, and SSDs using Phison's E18 controller hit the market at the end of November, just in time to catch the tail end of the holiday shopping season. Silicon Motion's entry-level gen4 controller also arrived this fall, but their high-end contender is not yet available. Planned gen4 controllers from Marvell are absent (though their NVMe controllers have all but vanished from the consumer SSD market anyways), and Innogrit's high-end NVMe controller only just showed up this week in the ADATA Gammix S70 that is currently sampling and should hit the shelves soon.

So while the PCIe gen4 transition is going more slowly than planned, it is still happening. PCIe 4.0 support is finally starting to creep into mobile platforms, which will help make it more mainstream. The PCIe 4.0 SSD options available today are significantly better than the first wave drives that were available a year ago, and the gen4 SSD market is starting to see enough competition to keep prices in check. PC gamers also have plenty of choices for high-end SSDs that match or exceed the performance of what's in the new gaming consoles.

Related Reading:

SATA In Decline

The SATA SSD market has been stagnant for several years, with very few major announcements of new SSD models or controllers. Most SSD vendors have taken to quietly updating the NAND inside their existing SATA models, so familiar names like the Crucial MX500 (launched in December 2017) are still nominally current. Samsung launched the 870 QVO with their second-generation QLC NAND, but the current EVO and PRO SATA models are still the 860 generation.

This year, it is clear that the SATA SSD market isn't just boring, but actually dying. When PC OEMs finally started to drop hard drives even from their low-end machines, they replaced them with NVMe SSDs rather than SATA. There are plenty of options for low-end NVMe SSDs, and they pretty much all outperform SATA SSDs for typical real-world use. The capacity advantage for SATA SSDs is now mostly gone: there are 8TB QLC and 4TB TLC options for both SATA and NVMe, though massive NVMe SSDs do still carry a price premium over SATA SSDs of similar capacity. Some major SSD vendors have already EOL'd their client OEM SATA SSDs. The SATA SSD market is collapsing in the same direction as the hard drive market: the list of use cases where SATA SSDs make sense is shrinking, and looks a lot like the list of use cases where hard drives still make sense. The biggest lingering advantage SATA SSDs have going forward is that a desktop or NAS usually has more SATA ports/bays than M.2 NVMe slots.

Since mechanical hard drives won't be disappearing in the foreseeable future, SATA SSDs can also stick around for a very long time, but increasingly as niche products rather than reasonable candidates for primary storage in a consumer PC. We don't recommend SATA SSDs for new PC builds, there aren't many PCs left that need a SATA SSD for an aftermarket upgrade, and SSDs in general are still too expensive to replace hard drives for consumer NAS and backup duty.

QLC NAND Enables 8TB Consumer SSDs

QLC NAND flash hit the market in 2018. This stores four bits of data per physical memory cell, rather than the three bits per cell of more mainstream TLC NAND flash memory. The general situation for consumer QLC SSDs isn't much different today from when they first showed up. Compared to TLC, QLC NAND is a bit cheaper, but sacrifices performance and write endurance. Those tradeoffs can make sense for an entry-level SSD, but it's not the only way to make a good affordable SSD. DRAMless SSDs with TLC NAND are still competitive at capacities up to 1TB, especially when using NVMe rather than SATA.

We're now two or three generations into the QLC era and QLC is making some inroads to the market, but it definitely isn't taking over—not even for entry-level consumer SSDs. Aside from product refreshes that replaced 64-layer QLC with 92/96L QLC, most of the action has been the introduction of new QLC product lines based around the Phison E12S NVMe controller, and a few using the Phison E16 PCIe 4.0 NVMe controller. These drives have raised the bar a bit for consumer QLC performance since they use 8-channel controllers rather than the 4-channel controllers used by most other low-end NVMe SSDs, and those controllers have also helped enable several 8TB M.2 NVMe products.

There are some indications that in 2021 we may see significant adoption of QLC by PC OEMs. So far, they have been wary of using QLC SSDs in part because they have to cover them as part of the whole system's warranty. Consumer QLC SSDs are no longer an unproven novelty, and OEMs can now secure multiple sources of QLC client SSDs. Uptake of QLC by PC OEMs may complicate the laptop buying process for consumers trying to avoid QLC drives, but on the other hand it should help finish pushing mechanical hard drives out of prebuilt PCs.

Related Reading:

Setting Up The Future: Partnerships, Layers, & New Tech
POST A COMMENT

85 Comments

View All Comments

  • Silver5urfer - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    I'd take an MLC SATA SSD over the overpriced, overheating QLC NVME any day.

    Plus bonus I get MLC SATA, Samsung 860PRO. The last best MLC drive, the NVMe TLC & QLC is only option going forward since Samsung abandoned the MLC with 980PRO. Just look a the TBW of these 860 PROs vs the TLC and QLC Is worst garbage.

    8TB SSD is useless esp when I want to write a lot of data and have them near 80% full, mechanical WD RED / Seagate Exos are much much much better and cheaper options. For those with mATX and other Console type builds they have to adjust to this QLC trash only. EATX and Standard can get any number of SATA drives. Esp all the premium boards have SATA x8 connections. SATA will always be better, newer is never always good. So much of sacrifice and that SLC cache bs and ton of crap.

    Unfortunately for laptops SATA Is almost done, thin and light BGA garbage sells more and Apple made people crave for that thin and light bs so Soldered SSDs and if the OEM cares about user a bit NVMe slots will exist. Even the Clevo machines are now done with SATA I guess.. a shame.

    About consoles, they max around a 2070S and with unified memory arch, do they even have any inherent advantage over ? So far nothing. Load times are one of the benefits but once true next gen games hit, like UE5, Rockstar RAGE and other then we will see how Consoles handle. PC will handle always no matter what, since even in 2020 we are seeing non SSE fixes for the game exes to run the new games. But on the storage side, I do not expect any FPS improvements from SATA to NVMe to Gen 4 SSDs, maybe new Engines will change that ?
    Reply
  • lmcd - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    Dell XPS 15 7591 shipped with an open 2.5in drive slot, which is part of why I recommended it to my partner. Still thin, around 4lbs.

    2.5in drives were always limited in the 13 inch laptop space. There were already designs that shipped mSATA only. The change is how many people buy 13 inch compared to 14 and 15, and how many 15 inch designs use a different platform than the 13 inch design (leaving 14 as a stretched 13, which stinks).
    Reply
  • Tomatotech - Thursday, December 31, 2020 - link

    “ For those with mATX and other Console type builds they have to adjust to this QLC trash only.”

    Eh? I was putting 5 drives in my mITX builds a couple of years ago, and mITX is far smaller than mATX.

    I used the Fractal Design Node 202 which is one of the smallest mass market mITX chassis at 10 litres. 1x nvme, 3x 2.5” multi-TB HDDs, and another 2.5” SATA SDD. All went in fine, plenty of room, plus a full size 1060 GPU if desired.
    Reply
  • MetaCube - Thursday, December 31, 2020 - link

    NVMe overpriced bad, SATA good Reply
  • mochabean - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    "there aren't many PCs left that need a SATA SSD for an aftermarket upgrade"

    huh? nvme m.2 slots weren't widespread on desktop motherboards until about 2017 or so. this is just flat out wrong, unless people are chucking their computers in the garbage after 3 years
    Reply
  • Billy Tallis - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    You are mistakenly presuming that the entire installed base of desktop PCs are in need of some kind of storage upgrade, or will be in the future. This is absurd. Most PCs out there already have adequate storage to finish out the useful lifespan of the system. Of the PC users whose usage will outgrow whatever SSD storage their machine already has, most can either get a hard drive for all their cold data, or they're the kind of power user who isn't running a system so old and low-end that it doesn't have any M.2 or PCIe slots to spare. Reply
  • lmcd - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    You're mistaken how "power users" actually buy and use systems. Hardware enthusiasts might well fit into your description of power users but it certainly doesn't describe the majority of power users. There are very few power users with unlimited money, and by contrast there are plenty of power users with older systems around that are in use and need storage upgrades at various points. Reply
  • Billy Tallis - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    "Hardware enthusiasts" and "power users" don't overlap completely, but collectively they're still not capable of driving enough sales through aftermarket upgrades to keep SATA SSDs relevant as more than a niche curiosity in a world where the vast majority of client/consumer systems will never have more than two drives and the first one is NVMe by default because the price premium is so small. Two of the six NAND manufacturers are already done with SATA. And if you think that U.2 will ever catch on for consumer storage, your views on the market are obviously very different from how the manufacturers see it based on real sales data. Reply
  • lmcd - Thursday, December 31, 2020 - link

    There is demand for a storage protocol that delivers high speeds and does not take extensive motherboard space. Reply
  • name99 - Thursday, December 31, 2020 - link

    You're mistaking "power users" with "most of the installed base"... Reply

Log in

Don't have an account? Sign up now