Intel's Architecture Day 2018: The Future of Core, Intel GPUs, 10nm, and Hybrid x86
by Dr. Ian Cutress on December 12, 2018 9:00 AM EST- Posted in
- CPUs
- Memory
- Intel
- GPUs
- DRAM
- Architecture
- Microarchitecture
- Xe
Ice Lake 10nm Xeon Scalable On Display
One of the more sedate talks at the event was discussing Intel’s approach in the datacenter. We’ve covered this story in detail, especially at Intel’s Data-Centric Summit only a few months ago. Intel has stated that Cascade Lake and Cooper Lake are the next two products for the enterprise market, both built on 14nm, focusing on enhanced security as well as AI instructions to help with acceleration. We also know that after these two Intel will have Ice Lake Scalable built on 10nm, but that’s about it.
To be honest, we don’t actually know much more than what we did back then. Intel confirmed that Ice Lake will be built using Sunny Cove cores. But Intel also showed off what they said was an Ice Lake Xeon 10nm processor and package, as shown in the image above.
Color me skeptical, but what was held up is likely either not ICL-SP or just silicon that doesn’t work. In order to make those products, Intel would have to have pumped out at least one large (350mm2+?) die that worked and then put it into a package with a heatspreader. Intel finally seems to be happy discussing a few products on 10nm, as shown at this event, but all the 10nm hardware is based on tiny 100mm2 or smaller silicon. Given Intel’s documented problems, I would have loved that CPU that was held up in the air to be Ice Lake-SP. But I’ll need to see something more concrete to believe it at this point; it’s too much of a jump.
Ending Intel’s Architecture Day
As I’m writing this, it is 3am PT and only a couple of hours away from Intel’s listed embargo time. The event finished 10 hours ago (a few of us skipped the end event drinks to get to writing) and despite the short time to write it all up, it was a good event overall. For the first time in a good while, Intel decided to talk shop, and in an honest way with very little hand waving. One could argue that in every discussion point, Intel raised more questions than they answered, but the positive here is that questions are being answered, and Intel is willing to share things like roadmaps into 2021, demonstrations of some exciting new products for 2019/2020, and a taste of how they are progressing in both manufacturing and microarchitecture. Hopefully Intel will feel the same and this can become a yearly cadence. The trio of Keller, Koduri, and Murthy, is a strong team to field to the press, and this event fits that bill.
To end this piece, I’m going to put in the Q&A section from day’s presentations, as well as some of the questions put in my particular round-table. It’s an interesting read, and it helps that Jim is full of memorable quotes.
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peevee - Tuesday, December 18, 2018 - link
"Normally cache misses decrease by a factor of a square root of the proportional size when the cache is increased"This is neither true in most performance-critical real cases nor can provide any estimate of actual performance increase.
mikato - Friday, December 21, 2018 - link
I'm here for the "raja inside" comments. Disappointed.peevee - Sunday, December 23, 2018 - link
"although it was pointed out that these improvements won’t help everyone, and might require new algorithms in order to use specific parts of the core."Which means it will help almost no one, as very few will optimize specifically for that core.
"We’re waiting to see what changes Intel has made on the front-end, which is where a lot of low-hanging fruit often lies for performance."
Low-hanging fruit in x86 was picked up in Pentium. Since then it is just more and more kludges which cost more energy than improve performance (normalizing for node).
peevee - Sunday, December 23, 2018 - link
"64 EUs... Each EU will support seven threads as before, which means that the entire GT2 design will essentially have 512 concurrent pipelines."Math?
And are these threads? Or ALUs?
peevee - Sunday, December 23, 2018 - link
"The 7-Zip demo was relatively straight forward, showing how the new instructions such as Vector-AES and SHA-NI in Sunny Cove can give the processor a 75% boost in performance over an equivalent Skylake based platform at iso-frequency."Huh? Have they recompiled (what compiler supports the new instructions then), or manually wrote a codepath in asm? And enabled encryption so to get any increase, so the increase is not actually for compression? Have they disabled compression too? ;)
dampf - Wednesday, January 2, 2019 - link
Really Intel? Adding AI improvements to Core architecture in 2021? Smartphone vendors were doing it last year... way too late. And 5G will take off in the end of 2019.TheJian - Wednesday, January 2, 2019 - link
I guess I'm not getting why I should be impressed by this.https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/design/comm...
Leti already did it? They say it's IP can be used by others, so is this Intel's solution (what they're using I mean)?
AMD already does chiplets, everyone does socs (Intel failed them)...etc. 144mm^2 not that small (about an large apple soc size). Current 7nm A12 is 83mm^2 with 6.9B transistors and two big cores, 4 small. AMD already did interposer/chiplets. Memory has been stacking for a while now. Not sure what is supposed to impress me here.
"Very much like a mobile chip" ...Pretty much...Again, why so impressed?
And as OP noted, you have no idea how big the market is, nor how much they can make on them. I think they have to try to sell some before we can say that (many Intel things killed over the years), as their last mobile strategy cost them 16B+ in giveaways, and lost the fab race for a while (maybe forever, because that 16B lost should have went DIRECTLY into fabs and 10nm wouldn't be crap now), as once 7nm Intel hits, it looks like TSMC beats them anyway with 5nm (ok, tie? whatever). My point here is Intel's 7nm won't be much ahead of tsmc 5nm if at all as that is what it will compete with since tapeouts happen q2 2019 and chips 12-15 months later.
https://www.extremetech.com/computing/278742-tsmc-...
Many other articles out there like this, but has a good chart of when and how much wafers etc. But if risk production is really as they say, 5nm chips by xmas 2020. That puts Intel where with this @7nm? Unless that answer is XMAS 2020, I'm thinking behind tsmc. It looks like TSMC is aiming before xmas and they've been moving at a good clip without many glitches recently, so Intel better get busy IMHO. TSMC is 2q 2019 risk, or 2H 2019 depending on who you believe I guess. But still, Intel 7nm better hit by xmas 2020 then right?
Comments on last page: Uh, should have bought NV under $10 but couldn't take the best from gpu side because nobody could handle Jen as president :) WOW, look at that value you passed up Intel, oh, and you'd RULE mobile by now with all those tegras being on Intel's process 5+yrs ago (never mind what gpus would have done on Intel during this time) and you already had the modem solution too (NV bought one, and had to kill it, intel would have taken over everything cpu/gpu/modem/mobile).
With chromebooks, 2b mobile units not using NV gpu's etc, nobody would have stopped them at FTC since more gpus, and arguably more computing devices ship without WINTEL, Intel's gpus (even with NV in there) etc. Intel gpus wouldn't have been needed, mobile wouldn't have been lost (14nm Intel NV socs would have competed well against 20nm everyone else, same story before 14/20, Intel 22nm NV socs vs. 28nm everyone else)., fab money wouldn't have been blown on mobile etc etc. All the problem Intel has now are because they blew 16B on failing instead of BUYING NV for that or a bit more. They had a value back then ~6B or less 659mil shares at $10, I bought at 12...ROFL. They should have owned NV anywhere in there and all this crap wouldn't have happened...LOL. We'll see how this "ideas from outside" crap works out now. To be fair AMD had the same problems to some extent, firing Dirk for not liking mobile/tablet/apu, and wanting a KING first then that cheap crap later. Now they chase king cpu (not gpu yet so far) again...LOL. Yeah, I own AMD stock but still think management is dumb. Can't price anything right, always trying to be a friend or get share which means NOTHING if it doesn't come with MARGIN as a poor man. Sure the rich guy can flood a market, kill enemy sales, but only because he has wads of cash and can wait until he breaks you. Poor company needs NET INCOME for the next gen R&D and to retain people like KELLER etc.
I'm only in AMD stock for the 7nm server stuff, then out likely. Rumor/hype work well in advance of real product at amd (talking stock price here), so you don't likely have to wait for anything other then "shipping soon" or some leaked benchmarks etc. and the price will head to 40+ probably. Just run before that reality hits or brave the waves...LOL. I think AMD will make money, certainly has the server chips to do it, but management just seems to fail at pricing anything to take advantage while they can. Too worried about market, instead of MARGIN for R&D. I'd rather own the 10% that makes most of the money than the 80% that makes crap+a little midrange crap. Apple thinks the same, see their Q reports for ages etc. Own the rich so you can afford to supply the poor. It doesn't work the other way around generally speaking, especially as the little guy. You can't bleed as the poor little guy ;)
TheJian - Wednesday, January 2, 2019 - link
One more point, in case anyone brings it up, A12x 122mm^2 10B transistors. just adds two more big cores IIRC (maybe a few other small changes). Same point though.