This week, Jon Peddie Research (JPR) released their quarterly discrete video card sales report for Q3 2017. According to JPR's figures, the quarter was a strong one for discrete desktop GPU shipments, with vendors shipping upwards of 15 million units, reaching volumes not seen in four or five years. This high point in card shipments was fueled by positive seasonality, desktop PC gaming, and the tail end of cryptocurrency mining demand, leading to add-in board (AIB) shipments increasing 29.1% over last quarter, more than double the 14% ten-year Q2-to-Q3 average increase. In terms of discrete desktop graphics market share, NVIDIA gained around 3% compared to JPR’s revised Q2 figures, putting the balance at 27.2% for AMD and 72.8% for NVIDIA.

In context, the GPU and PC markets fluctuate in a relatively consistent seasonal pattern: shipments trend flat to down in Q1, notably down in Q2, notably up in Q3, and up to flat in Q4. Also in context, of course, is the effect of cryptomining mining demand on last quarter’s shipments, resulting in an unseasonal increase from Q1 2017. JPR notes the waning demand of Ethereum-driven cryptomining, but concedes that it continues to have an impact that is “still just as impossible to accurately measure.”

These reports of both strong seasonality and weakening cryptomining are corroborated by AMD and NVIDIA’s latest quarterly fiscal results, the former bringing AMD back in the GAAP earnings black and the latter posting yet another record quarter. AMD attributed the 74% year-over-year revenue growth in their Computing and Graphics segment to strong Radeon and desktop Ryzen sales, observing a strong increase in GPU average selling price (ASP). And while on the subject, higher ASPs are certainly not news to many consumers in the market for a mid-range graphics card, with little reprieve as the holiday season approaches.

As for NVIDIA, they attributed continued sales of Pascal based gaming GPUs in growing their quarterly Gaming segment revenue to $1.561 billion. By nature of miners buying GeForce cards, that number includes some amount of cryptomining demand. But in looking at cryptomining specifically, NVIDIA does record crypto-specific boards separately as part of their OEM & IP segment, and they saw sales of those crypto board drop to $70 million from the previous quarter’s $150 million.

So for explaining Q3’s strong AIB shipments beyond Ethereum, JPR unsurprisingly points to gaming PCs, highlighting AMD’s Ryzen Threadripper CPU launch and Intel’s response. Which in this case would entail engaging AMD in core wars with Skylake-X and later two-upping their 16 cores with 18 under a new ‘i9’ branding. Among the report’s other considerations are the continuing popularization of eSports and desktop gaming PCs over mainstream general purpose PCs. The end result is Q3 2017 AIB shipments edging over 15 million units, a figure closer to quarterly volume in 2013 and a 5-year-high since the roughly 17.5 million units shipped in Q3 2012. But JPR also sees the high water mark of Q3 2017 as evidence for the return of traditional seasonality, in the sense that it suggests Q4 2017 shipments will be flat to down. From the standpoint of noticeably waning cryptomining demand and probable lack of major GPU launches, this is arguably more likely than not.

Such atypically high volume always has the potential to affect market share, and for Q3 2017 NVIDIA had the upper hand with their discrete desktop GPU shipments up 34.7% from last quarter, compared to AMD’s 16.1% increase. In terms of market share, this resulted in NVIDIA picking up 3.1%, slowly widening what has been a roughly 70-30 split of the past year with AMD. While the major launch of Q3 2017 was the Radeon RX Vega cards in August, the mid-quarter timing should be noted, as well as the limited post-launch availability that afflicts high-end card launches in general.

Keeping to JPR’s numbers for comparison purposes, the market share impact of RX Vega is likely to be smaller than previous launches as only the high-end and lower-volume RX Vega 56 and 64 have been released, as opposed to if a fuller stack with Vega 11 were trickling out. But given the turbulence of cryptomining, it seems more likely that the broader impact (or non-impact) of RX Vega and even RX 500 cards will not be clearly visible for another quarter or so.

Wrapping things up, the total graphics share, which encompasses discrete and integrated GPUs for desktop and mobile, saw NVIDIA gain more ground mostly at the expense of Intel. Beyond discrete desktop GPU shipments, NVIDIA saw a notable 22.4% increase in discrete notebook GPU shipments. In the aggregate, JPR reports that AMD’s overall unit shipments increased 7.6% quarter-to-quarter, Intel’s shipments increased 5%, and NVIDIA’s shipments increased by a much higher 29.5%. In the next couple years, we may start to see some interesting shifts with AMD’s Zen-based APUs and Intel’s revived determination to develop discrete high-end GPUs. The union that is Intel’s processor with AMD Radeon graphics is unlikely to be high-volume but will be intriguing nonetheless. And as for NVIDIA, their numbers continue to speak for themselves.

Source: Jon Peddie Research

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  • HStewart - Friday, December 01, 2017 - link

    I personally think this Cryptomining stuff is extremely bad thing and hopefully one day eliminated from the systems just as much as we attempt Virus, Malware and such. Malwarebytes recently reported issue with a site cause issue with eating system resource related to Cryptomining

    Total GPU shipments is interesting, unless you are living in fantasy land - it points to how much the industry has turn mobile. As for discrete GPU on mobile, it probably only a small percentage of mobile cpu and will likely only take away from desktop GPU markets as the industry goes more mobile.

    I serious doubt Intel is planning to use Raju for extremely high GPU - my bet his knowledge be used in more Intel's primary market which is now Mobile systems. It is naïve to think that Intel EMIB is just for AMD Radeon GPU - with the fact that 2017 numbers show that Intel lost some of Market from NVidia not AMD - Intel will like also have a version with NVidia GPU - but in long run that will be new GPU from Raju,
    Reply
  • Yojimbo - Saturday, December 02, 2017 - link

    You seem to be implying that the GPU market for high-end gaming is shrinking, but we know that isn't the case. It is enjoying healthy growth. Don't confuse the overall PC market with the gaming market. Analysts made that mistake for years but now they have learned better.

    Regarding Intel, they came out and said they wanted a high end GPU. Perhaps the main reason they want it is for data center acceleration, particularly of deep learning applications. But if they are going to build one they are going to attempt to go after whatever markets having one allows them to profitably compete in. Perhaps something else that convinced them to build a high end GPU now is this graphic, the graphic that refutes what you claim about discrete GPUs becoming irrelevant: https://images.anandtech.com/doci/12107/aib-001.pn...

    Intel probably had a strategy of swallowing up more and more of the discrete GPU business with their integrated GPUs. But that has not come to pass. Discrete GPUs are only becoming more important in the most lucrative areas of the market, and Intel has even recently had to turn to an AMD GPU to compete with NVIDIA because their integrated GPUs are not powerful enough for their customers.
    Reply
  • Dragonstongue - Friday, December 01, 2017 - link

    the way analyst quacks spell out AMD as far as GPU sales go they are selling next to nothing, they do not track ALL shipments, only ones reported, seems that while AMD is not doing quite as well as Nv percentage wise, they are far from doing shitty either.

    Stupid market bulls...for all the nasty talk about AMD only losing 0.2% based on these numbers and maintaining same as year on year, I hardly call that FAIL as many allude to LOL.

    Not to mention, how many of those analysts actually know what the fk they are talking about.

    I do not see Crypto ever drying up, new makers will see that there is significant promise and new avenues that open up via Crypto, GPU are amazing tools for "hashing" and Radeon specifically have always been king of the hill when it comes to hashing prowess.

    Yes FPGA/ASIC for specific tasks are that much quicker, but for the most part, I do not see GPU ever be completely gone as a viable use of doing hashing type tasks.

    The more Nv chops things away to "upsell" their $$$$$$$$ models, the more Radeons truly shine as being the more "complete" package IMO and for my $$ spent.
    Reply
  • AdditionalPylons - Wednesday, December 06, 2017 - link

    Note that JPR was referring to the waning demand of Ethereum-driven sales. As npz already mentioned the RX Vega does extremely well in for instance Monero mining. I suspect that Ethereum has popularized GPU mining and many people have found this new interest and are now looking at mining other cryptocurrencies as well.
    Many miners may also not have noted that AMD released the beta blockchain driver which improves the performance of Ethereum mining. With the regular drivers there was otherwise a drastic decrease at later epochs which was not seen in nVidia cards.
    https://www.techspot.com/article/1438-ethereum-min...
    This may have temporarily shifted potential AMD miners towards buying nVidia.

    That said, now I just hope that there could be some Vega 56's left for the third party card makers so that we could see something other than the reference designs (noisy blowers or horribly expensive liquid references). The Asus Strix Vega is only available as Vega 64 in my country at least.
    Reply
  • corinthos - Wednesday, December 13, 2017 - link

    noticed last month Vega 64 PowerColor was selling for as low as $465.. In December, I see it's selling on eBay for $700+, even $800.... and I thought the whole crypto mining thing was cooling off for now...

    what's the TLDR here? keep your Vega 64 and crypto mine with it for some gains or keep it for Hackintosh (the new iMac Pros will be using the Vega)? sell it and use the dough to get a 1080ti instead (if gaming is the priority), or sell it and get an RX580 (if not a hardcore gamer and there's not a worthwhile crypto mining return with just 1 card)?
    Reply

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